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More Trouble Ahead

Commentary: Week of September 26, 2022 We had been bullish on stocks all the way back to March 2009, when mark-to market accounting was fixed and the Financial Panic started to recede. At that time the S&P 500 traded as low as 677. What a time to buy! After that...

Will Higher Interest Rates Tame Inflation?

Commentary: Week of September 19, 2022 We know many people think we are beating a dead horse, but this horse is far from dead.  Instead, she’s in the middle of one of the most important races of her life. What we have been talking about – and will keep talking about...

The Fed: What to Expect and Watch

Commentary: Week of September 12, 2022 If you’re still wondering how much the Federal Reserve will raise short-term interest rates next week, you should wonder no more: the Fed is almost certainly going to raise rates by three-quarters of a percentage point (75 basis...

Home Prices Plateauing, Rents Catching Up

Commentary: Week of September 06, 2022 The housing sector surged during COVID in large part due to loose money. The Federal Reserve kept short-term rates artificially low and the M2 measure of the money supply soared. Now, with rising short-term rates and slower...

Biden’s Student-Loan Fiasco

Commentary: Week of August 29, 2022 The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell more than 1,000 points on Friday, caused apparently by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s attempt to use a brief speech to channel the ghost of Paul Volcker. Obviously, this was part of the market’s...