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Monetary Mayhem Muddies Crystal Ball

Commentary: Week of February 20, 2023 You can’t read or watch financial news these days without a heavy dose of speculation about what the Fed is going to do with short-term interest rates, when it’s going to do it, and how long it’s going to do it for. There’s...

Hot January?

Commentary: Week of February 13, 2023 Markets have been volatile, with reports convincing many that the Fed is done hiking rates.  But this week, we get data that may change some minds.  Why?  Because the economic reports for January are likely to come in hot, with...

The Game Isn’t Over

Commentary: Week of February 06, 2023 At the beginning of the season, not many predicted that the Philadelphia Eagles would be in the Super Bowl this year.  But, they had a fantastic season and are favored over the Kansas City Chiefs.  Predicting this economy is...

Debt Limit Drama

Commentary: Week of January 30, 2023 The US federal budget is on an unsustainable path…but not for the reasons that most people think. Yes, the national debt is $31 trillion, well higher than annual GDP, and only going higher.  Yes, the budget deficit last year was...

Rear View Mirror OK, Collision Ahead

Commentary: Week of January 23, 2023 First, the good news: we estimate that real GDP grew at a solid 2.8% annual rate in the fourth quarter.  But you shouldn’t dwell on the solid GDP report that comes out Thursday.  Why?  Because the report shows what’s going on in...