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NO RECESSION…yet

Commentary: Week of October 03, 2022 We are not “recession deniers,” we just don’t think one has started yet. The distortions of economic activity from lockdowns, massive deficit spending, and money printing are immense. It’s hard to imagine the US can unwind these...

More Trouble Ahead

Commentary: Week of September 26, 2022 We had been bullish on stocks all the way back to March 2009, when mark-to market accounting was fixed and the Financial Panic started to recede. At that time the S&P 500 traded as low as 677. What a time to buy! After that...

Will Higher Interest Rates Tame Inflation?

Commentary: Week of September 19, 2022 We know many people think we are beating a dead horse, but this horse is far from dead.  Instead, she’s in the middle of one of the most important races of her life. What we have been talking about – and will keep talking about...

The Fed: What to Expect and Watch

Commentary: Week of September 12, 2022 If you’re still wondering how much the Federal Reserve will raise short-term interest rates next week, you should wonder no more: the Fed is almost certainly going to raise rates by three-quarters of a percentage point (75 basis...

Home Prices Plateauing, Rents Catching Up

Commentary: Week of September 06, 2022 The housing sector surged during COVID in large part due to loose money. The Federal Reserve kept short-term rates artificially low and the M2 measure of the money supply soared. Now, with rising short-term rates and slower...