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Slower Growth in 2022Q1

Commentary: Week of April 18, 2022 Real GDP (Gross Domestic Product), in the US, grew 5.5% in 2021, the fastest growth for any calendar year since the Reagan Boom in the mid-1980s. In spite of this, for the two years ending Q4-2021, real GDP grew just 1.6% annually,...

Housing: Heartburn, NOT a Heart Attack

Commentary: Week of April 11, 2022 When interest rates go up, many analysts start to worry about recessions. That’s not wrong to do, after all Federal Reserve rate cycles are important. Lately, the market has settled on expectations for a total of about 2.25% or more...

We’re All Keynesians Now

Commentary: Week of April 04, 2022 Intellectuals and politicians often try to verbally summarize or justify conventional thinking in pithy ways. Milton Friedman (in 1965) and Richard Nixon (in 1971) both said different versions of the phrase, “We are all Keynesians...

The Inflation Games

Commentary: Week of March 28, 2022 Inflation is a political lightning rod. As a result, there is a good deal of misconception around it. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is up 7.9% from a year ago and will likely peak in the 8.5 – 9.0% range sometime in the next...

Special Client Report: Dominoes are Falling

Special Client Report: March 24, 2022 – Dominoes are Falling You undoubtedly have heard reports that the world’s supply of wheat and corn are in jeopardy due to Ukraine and Russia both missing this season’s planting window for obvious reasons (click the link in...

What the Fed “Should” Do

Commentary: Week of March 21, 2022 Normally when we write about public policy – monetary policy, taxes, spending, trade, and regulations – we mainly focus on what we think policymakers will do and the likely effects on the economy or the financial markets. For...