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Respect the Bear

Commentary: Week of June 20, 2022 We became bullish about stocks once mark-to market accounting was fixed in March 2009. We were also bullish after COVID-19 hit. We got called “perma-bulls,” but as we look back at the low interest rates and healthy profit growth, we...

50 “Bips” or More?

Commentary: Week of May 31, 2022 All eyes will be on the results of the Federal Reserve meeting on Wednesday when it announces how much it’s going to raise short-term rates, its new projections for the economy and short-term rates for the next few years, as well as...

The Outlook for November

Commentary: Week of May 31, 2022 We are now about five months away from the mid-term elections that will decide who controls the Senate and House of Representatives for the next two years. For the House, we think the Republicans are overwhelming favorites, with odds...

Reducing Stock Market Forecasts!

Commentary: Week of May 09, 2022 At the end of 2021, we set out our projections for the stock market in 2022: 5,250 for the S&P 500 and 40,000 for the Dow Jones Industrial Average. Those projections were based on our expectations for both profit growth in 2022 and...

Taming Inflation

Commentary: Week of May 02, 2022 Ultimately, inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon, as the late great economist Milton Friedman used to say. And so the key to reducing the inflation we’re experiencing today – the highest inflation in forty years –...

Focus on the MONEY, NOT RATES

Commentary: Week of April 25, 2022 No one can say that the Federal Reserve can’t do the impossible. At long last observers from across the political spectrum agree on one thing – that Jerome Powell and the Fed are well behind the inflation curve and have a lot of...