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January Surge Kept Q1 Positive

by | Apr 17, 2023 | Commentaries

Commentary: Week of April 17, 2023 The US economy is being tugged in two different directions right now.  On the positive side we have the lingering effects of the massive stimulus of 2020-21, the renormalization of the service sector after COVID Lockdowns, and, as...

How to Lose Reserve Currency Status

by | Apr 11, 2023 | Commentaries

Commentary: Week of April 10, 2023 History is full of economic and societal collapses.  The Incan and Roman societies disappeared, the Ottoman Empire fell apart, the United Kingdom saw the pound lose its reserve currency status.  So, anyone who says the US, and the...

Still Bearish

by | Apr 4, 2023 | Commentaries

Commentary: Week of April 04, 2023 If you were bullish for 2023…congratulations!  The S&P 500 rose 7.0% in the first quarter and, although we still have more data to analyze before we finalize our prediction, it looks like real GDP grew at about a 2.0% annual rate...

The Fed Waffles

by | Mar 27, 2023 | Commentaries

Commentary: Week of March 27, 2023 The Federal Reserve raised short-term interest rates by another quarter point on Wednesday.  That, by itself, was clear, with the Fed now targeting a range for short-term rates between 4.75% and 5.00%.  The problem was that the Fed...

Heading Toward a National Bank?

by | Mar 20, 2023 | Commentaries

Commentary: Week of March 20, 2023 The late great Supreme Court Justice Antonin Scalia was often in dissent in key legal cases during his long career.  Almost thirty years ago, he wrote that “Day by day, case by case, the Supreme Court is busy designing a Constitution...