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Rear View Mirror OK, Collision Ahead

Commentary: Week of January 23, 2023 First, the good news: we estimate that real GDP grew at a solid 2.8% annual rate in the fourth quarter.  But you shouldn’t dwell on the solid GDP report that comes out Thursday.  Why?  Because the report shows what’s going on in...

Soft Landing?

Commentary: Week of January 17, 2023 We wrote last week about the soft landing that markets now seem to expect. If the US does have a soft landing it would be because the Federal Reserve tightened enough to slow inflation, but not enough to throw the economy into...

Goldilocks…NOT

Commentary: Week of January 09, 2023 Not long after Friday’s Employment Report multiple analysts and commentators were calling it a “Goldilocks” report, by which they meant it showed that the economy was neither “too hot” nor “too cold,” but instead, “just right.” In...

The Housing Outlook for 2023

Commentary: Week of January 03, 2023 The housing sector was a huge and early beneficiary of the super-loose monetary policy of 2020-21. But, once the Fed started tightening, housing took the lead downward, as well.  This isn’t a repeat of the 2006-11 housing bust, but...

Still Unprecedented

Commentary: Week of December 19, 2022 What a difference a year makes! One year ago the Federal Reserve was forecasting that real GDP would grow a strong 4.0% in 2022, that PCE prices would be up a relatively moderate 2.6%, and we should expect a grand total of three...