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Stocks Look Pricey

Commentary: Week of August 28, 2023 At the heart of our assessment of the stock market is our Capitalized Profits Model. That model takes economy-wide profits (excluding profits or losses generated by the Federal Reserve) quarter by quarter going back nearly seventy...

Where is the Economy?

Commentary: Week of August 14, 2023 What’s going on with the markets and the economy?  Long-term Treasury yields are up substantially since last Fall while the stock market, after a big rally, has stumbled so far this month.  Meanwhile, the real economy appears to...

Here’s Something to “Fitch” About

Commentary: Week of August 07, 2023 What would you do if you won the Mega Millions?  It’s now up to a record $1.55 billion!  We would start a not-for-profit to educate people not to play the lottery.  Why? Your odds of winning are 1 in 302.6 million…you are 70 times...

Discount the Happy Talk

Commentary: Week of May 29, 2023 The stock market finished Friday on a high note, with the S&P 500 index just north of 4,200 for the first time since August 2022 and up 17.6% versus the market bottom in October. Part of recent gains are related to optimism about...

Agents of Change?

Commentary: Week of May 22, 2023 If you’ve been to a high school or college commencement lately, then you know the drill: at some point at least one speaker will urge the graduates to be “agents of change,” suggesting they’d like to see these students make the world a...