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A Plow Horse with Shin Splints

Commentary: Week of December 05, 2022 Our position on the economy has been that the US is headed for a recession, but we’re not quite there yet. Nothing in all the recent data reports changes our minds. Look for a recession to start in the second half of 2023, with...

This Rally Shouldn’t Last

Commentary: Week of November 28, 2022 It’s that special time of the year, and we will all hear and read a great deal about Black Friday, Thanksgiving Weekend, and Cyber Monday during the next few days. Many pundits are going to make sweeping conclusions about the...

The Aftermath Economy

Commentary: Week of November 21, 2022 We will forever believe that locking down the economy for COVID-19 was a massive mistake. There is virtually no evidence that death rates were lowered by government mandates and lockdowns. Business activity in certain sectors...

Democrats Overperform

Commentary: Week of November 14, 2022 The Democratic Party substantially beat expectations on Tuesday, already having clinched control of the US Senate for the next two years and, for now, hanging on to a (very slim) possibility of keeping control of the House of...

Beware a “Gridlock Rally”

Commentary: Week of November 07, 2022 Election day is Tuesday and will bring results for key Senate, House, and Governors races from all around the country, plus local legislative races and more. For the federal races, our projection is that the Republicans are...