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Rear View Mirror OK, Collision Ahead

Commentary: Week of January 23, 2023 First, the good news: we estimate that real GDP grew at a solid 2.8% annual rate in the fourth quarter.  But you shouldn’t dwell on the solid GDP report that comes out Thursday.  Why?  Because the report shows what’s going on in...

Soft Landing?

Commentary: Week of January 17, 2023 We wrote last week about the soft landing that markets now seem to expect. If the US does have a soft landing it would be because the Federal Reserve tightened enough to slow inflation, but not enough to throw the economy into...

Goldilocks…NOT

Commentary: Week of January 09, 2023 Not long after Friday’s Employment Report multiple analysts and commentators were calling it a “Goldilocks” report, by which they meant it showed that the economy was neither “too hot” nor “too cold,” but instead, “just right.” In...