by J Thomas Knight | Jan 24, 2023 | Commentaries
Commentary: Week of January 23, 2023 First, the good news: we estimate that real GDP grew at a solid 2.8% annual rate in the fourth quarter. But you shouldn’t dwell on the solid GDP report that comes out Thursday. Why? Because the report shows what’s going on in...
by J Thomas Knight | Jan 24, 2023 | Commentaries
Commentary: Week of January 17, 2023 We wrote last week about the soft landing that markets now seem to expect. If the US does have a soft landing it would be because the Federal Reserve tightened enough to slow inflation, but not enough to throw the economy into...
by J Thomas Knight | Jan 10, 2023 | Commentaries
Commentary: Week of January 09, 2023 Not long after Friday’s Employment Report multiple analysts and commentators were calling it a “Goldilocks” report, by which they meant it showed that the economy was neither “too hot” nor “too cold,” but instead, “just right.” In...
by J Thomas Knight | Jan 3, 2023 | Commentaries
Commentary: Week of January 03, 2023 The housing sector was a huge and early beneficiary of the super-loose monetary policy of 2020-21. But, once the Fed started tightening, housing took the lead downward, as well. This isn’t a repeat of the 2006-11 housing bust, but...
by J Thomas Knight | Dec 21, 2022 | Commentaries
Commentary: Week of December 19, 2022 What a difference a year makes! One year ago the Federal Reserve was forecasting that real GDP would grow a strong 4.0% in 2022, that PCE prices would be up a relatively moderate 2.6%, and we should expect a grand total of three...
by J Thomas Knight | Dec 21, 2022 | Commentaries
Commentary: Week of December 12, 2022 Predicting stock values in 2023 is tough. Unprecedented actions during COVID leaves a wide range of possible outcomes. Let us explain. As always, we start out with our Capitalized Profits Model. That model takes a government...
